Zimbabwe has reduced its economic growth projection for 2027 to 3.5 percent, down from an earlier target of 5 percent, according to Xinhua. Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube gave the revised figure on Wednesday at a pre-budget seminar in Bulawayo, the country's second-largest city, pointing to a drought linked to El Nino that is expected during the 2026/2027 summer cropping season.
Ncube said the economy should expand by 8.3 percent in 2025 and 5 percent in 2026 before slowing to the new 2027 figure, Xinhua reported. He linked the moderation to weather-related risks and a less favourable international environment.
Why it matters
The downgrade matters because agriculture remains a large part of Zimbabwe's economy and a poor rainy season can quickly feed through to farm output, rural incomes and food prices. A weaker harvest would also weigh on the government's revenue at a time when it is preparing a national budget.
The revision also marks a shift in momentum. After two years of relatively strong expansion, the finance ministry now expects growth to slow by more than a third between 2026 and 2027. For households and businesses, that means the benefits of recent gains may be harder to extend, and the budget will have less room to absorb shocks.
Xinhua reported that Ncube framed the lower number as a response to conditions outside the government's control rather than a change in policy direction. He said Zimbabwe remains committed to keeping the foundations of long-term growth in place and to making sure economic progress produces visible results for ordinary people.
The assumptions behind the 3.5 percent figure
According to Xinhua, the 2027 projection rests on several conditions holding. These include a stable macroeconomic environment, continued strength in mineral exports, further steps to make it easier to do business, and a reduction in geopolitical tensions that would support faster growth in the wider world economy.
Each of those assumptions carries its own risk. Mineral exports have been a key source of foreign currency for Zimbabwe, so any fall in commodity prices or output would undercut the forecast. Reforms aimed at simplifying business procedures depend on steady implementation across government departments. The expectation of calmer geopolitics is outside Harare's control entirely.
The drought assumption is the most direct. El Nino events are associated with below-average rainfall across parts of southern Africa, and the finance ministry is now planning on that basis for the coming cropping season. If the rains fail as anticipated, the effect would land first on smallholder farmers and then on the wider food supply.
Ncube's remarks came at a seminar held ahead of the 2027 budget, an annual gathering where the finance ministry sets out its thinking before formal proposals are drafted. Presenting the forecast there gives the government an early opportunity to explain the slower outlook to lawmakers, business groups and other stakeholders before the budget is finalised.
A budget under tighter constraints
The growth downgrade lands as Zimbabwe prepares a budget that, according to other local reporting, is expected to include tax relief measures and steps to reduce fuel costs. Those proposals were reported by the Herald, one of the outlets covering the same pre-budget period. A smaller economy than previously assumed would make such commitments harder to fund without either cutting spending elsewhere or finding new revenue.
Parliament's role in scrutinising the plan has also drawn attention. Separately, 263Chat reported that Speaker Jacob Mudenda urged lawmakers to strengthen their oversight of the budget process. That call fits the moment: with growth slowing, the case for close examination of spending choices becomes stronger, not weaker.
The finance minister's message was that the lower projection does not change the government's longer-term aims. Xinhua reported that Ncube stressed continuity, saying the focus stays on sustaining the basis for growth over time and on ensuring that any progress reaches the population at large. Whether that holds will depend on how the budget translates the forecast into actual allocations.
For now, the headline number is the clearest signal: Zimbabwe's official expectation for 2027 is 1.5 percentage points lower than it was, and the reason given is weather.
What to watch
The next marker is the 2027 budget itself, which will show how the finance ministry plans to reconcile slower growth with promised tax relief and fuel-cost measures. Beyond that, the 2026/2027 rainy season will be the decisive test of whether the drought assumption behind the 3.5 percent figure proves right.
